PDF 原檔：MS｜Monthly Databook ｜NB｜20260614_original.pdf
原始內容
M June 14, 2026 09:00 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Monthly Databook: May-26 shipments -7% vs. MSe; 2Qe down 3%; introduce 3Qe at -1% q/q
Key Takeaways
- Top five ODMs' May 2026 NB shipments were 9.3m units (+2% m/m, -12% y/y), 7% below our estimate.
- We estimate June 2026 NB builds at 10.9m units (+17% m/m, -16% y/y).
- We cut our 2Q26 NB build estimate by 3% to 29.3m units (flat q/q, -12% y/y).
- We also introduce our 3Q26 NB build estimate at 29m units (-1% q/q, -15% y/y).
Overall May ODM notebook shipments came in 7% below our estimate:
Component constraints remain the key bottlenecks, forcing ODMs to prioritize higher-end, more profitable models. We forecast June NB builds at 10.9m (+17% q/ q, -16% y/y) due to quarter-end pull-ins.
We lower our 2Q notebook build estimate by 3% to 29.3m units (flat q/q, -12% y/
y): The flat q/q growth is 12ppts below the 15Y avg seasonality of +12% q/q in 2Q, which is based on ODMs' latest guidance. We believe any deviation from the guidance will mainly stem from component availability.
We stay cautious on demand downside in 2H, although it is difficult to predict the exact timing. PC OEMs' mix will continue to shift toward more high-end segments, as they prioritize putting limited components into premium models to drive higher profits. We introduce our 3Q notebook build estimate at 29m units (-1% q/q, -15% y/y), which is sub-seasonal vs. the 15Y avg seasonality of +5% q/q in 3Q. Actual shipments will continue to depend on component availability.
Exhibit 1 : Monthly NB shipments for top five NB ODMs
| Shipment (unit: k) Quanta Wistron | Jan-25 Feb-25 ::::::)+C-- ::::::2+6-- ::::::6+3-- | M ar-25 Q+G-- ::::: : 6+G-- ::::: : | Apr-25 2+2-- ::::: : | May-25 2+C-- ::::: : | Jun-25 3+--- ::::: : | Jul-25 Q+--- ::::: : | Aug-25 Q+6-- ::::: : ::::: ::::: | Sep-25 Q+5-- : ::::: | Oct-25E 2+3-- : | Nov-25 2+3-- ::::: : | Dec-25 ::::::2+G-- ::::::6+A-- | Jan-26 ::::::)+A-- | Feb-26 ::::::)+--- | Mar-26 ::::::3+2-- | Apr-26 ::::::2+3-- | May-26 May-26E ::::::2+3-- | Diff. Jun-26E ::::::2+3-- -B ::::::)+--- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Others Hompal | ::::::6+3-- ::::::6+3-- | 6+A-- ::::: : 6+G-- ::::: : )+G-- ::::: : | 6+C-- ::::: : | )+Q-- ::::: : | )+--- ::::: : 6+A-- : | ::::: : ::::: | )+)-- 6+C-- : ::::: ::::: | )+)-- : ::::: 6+G-- : ::::: | )+6-- : ::::: 6+5-- : ::::: | )+)-- : 6+A-- : | ::::::)+5-- ::::::6+A-- | ::::::6+5-- | ::::::)+C-- | ::::::6+C-- | ::::::6+A-- ::::::6+3-- ::::::)+--- | q63B q6AB | ::::::2+3-- ::::::)+)-- ::::::)+)-- |
| Total ::::::C+Q6- MoM % | ::::::6+5-- ::::::)+6-- | 6+A-- ::::: : )+)-- ::::: : ::::6)+2-- | 6+C-- ::::: : )+Q-- ::::: : | )+6-- ::::: : )+3-- ::::: : | ::::: ::::: | )+2-- | )+2-- ::::: : ::: | )+3-- : ::::: : | )+6-- : ::::: : | )+2-- : ::::66+C)3 | ::::::)+--- ::::::)+Q-- | ::::::6+3-- ::::::6+3-- | ::::::)+)-- ::::::)+C-- | ::::::6+3-- ::::::6+C-- | ::::::6+C-- ::::::)+6-- 3A3 :::::::: ::::::G+)A3 | q3B | ::::::)+)-- |
| ::::::)+--- Pegatron :::::::::56- | 3A3 :::::::: : ::::::C+CA3 | :::::::::A-- :::::::::56- G+36- ::::: : | :::::::::AA3 ::::6-+3A3 | :::::::::GG- ::::6)+GG- | : A3- :::::::: : ::::6-+A3- | :::::::::C)3 66+))3 ::: : | :::::::::C)3 6)+-)3 ::: | :::::::::AA3 6-+-A3 ::: | :::::::::A6- :::::::: : 6-+Q6- | ::::::6+5-- G)3 A-- :::::::: : ::::::C+Q-- | Q)3 :::::::: : ::::::A+-)3 | 5A3 :::::::: : ::::62+AA3 | 3)3 :::::::: : ::::::G+6)3 | :::::::: : 5)3 : ::::6-+-)3 | qCB qAB | A3- :::::::: : ::::6-+C3- | |
| Quanta q23B Wistron q6AB | 66B | 3CB q22B )AB q66B | 63B 5B | 2)B | q)-B | )B | 6)B | q)QB | -B | 66B q26B 6CB | q)5B | 653B | q2QB | -B q5B | -B | -B )GB | |
| Others q)3B | -B AB | 6GB | 22B | q6AB q6GB | 6-B 5B | -B | q3B | 3B 5B | q23B | q5B | A3B | q25B | 66B -B )-B | QAB | |||
| Hompal q62B | 3B | q66B 2CB q)QB | 5B | GB | 6AB QB | qCB | -B | 5B | q65B q65B | 6CB 6-B QB | q63B q22B | q6)B | QAB CAB | q2)B q25B | 66B 6AB | 6-B | |
| Pegatron q6GB | q5B | ))B q62B | )AB | )CB | GB | q5B | qCB 2-B | q)QB | q5B q2GB | 3GB | q))B | 6-B | 6GB | 2-B | |||
| Total q)3B | 5B | 2GB q)2B | 66B | )2B | q)QB q6AB | 6-B QB | -B AB | q65B | 2B 6QB | q)GB | q65B | G5B | q2QB | )B 6-B | 6AB | ||
| YoY% Quanta q2B | AB | 2B | q3B | 66B | 6CB | q3B | q5B | GB | q2B qGB | qQB | q23B | CB | 5B | qCB qCB | q2-B | ||
| Wistron 63B | AB | QB -B | 5B | 5B | 22B | )3B | )GB | 6AB | )GB | 62B | AB QAB | 5B | q5B 66B | qCB | |||
| Others -B | )2B | 6)B | 62B | 5B | )QB | -B | 5B | 65B 5B | q5B | QQB -B | 62B | q5B | 65B | q6)B | q6AB -B | 3B | |
| Hompal qGB | qGB | q)6B | q6AB | q6AB | qCB | q)6B | q6QB | q63B | -B QB | q)-B | q)GB | q2B | q6CB | q6AB q62B | q6)B | ||
| Pegatron 65B | 32B | q2B | 65B | 5B | )CB | q2B | q5B | -B | q)3B 23B | )2B | 63B | q)5B | qQB | q6QB | q6GB | q)QB | |
| Total -B | AB | q6B | 6-B | CB | q)B | -B | 5B | q)6B | 6)B | qQB | q3B | q65B | |||||
| CB 2B | qQB | q)B | 6QB 6B | -B | q)5B q6)B |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are other leaders.
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